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Two alternative concepts of the output gap, Keynesian and monetarist, can be distinguished. When they use the phrase, economists should make clear which concept is under discussion. The first concept, developed by Okun in the early 1960s, defines the output gap relative to a full employment notion of output. It was a standard part of the Keynesian policy toolkit in the 1960s and 1970s, and was associated with the active use of fiscal policy to promote full employment. As stated by Okun, the gap takes only positive values and these values rise with unemployment. The second concept, which is derived from Friedman’s 1967 accelerationist hypothesis, defines the output gap relative to the natural-rate-of-unemployment level of output. It takes both positive and negative values, and, following the lead of the international research organizations (the OECD and the IMF), an above-trend level of output is said to define a ‘positive output gap’ and a beneath-trend level a ‘negative output gap’.
Tim Congdon is an economist and businessman. He was a member of the Treasury Panel of Independent Forecasters (the so-called ‘wise men’) between 1992 and 1997, which advised the UK’s Chancellor of the Exchequer on economic policy. He founded Lombard Street Research, one of the City of London’s leading economic research and forecasting consultancies, in 1989, and was its Managing Director until 2001 and its Chief Economist from 2001 to 2005. He was an honorary professor at Cardiff Business School from 1990 to 2005 and is currently a visiting research fellow at the Financial Markets Group, the London School of Economics. His latest book “Keynes, the Keynesians and Monetarism” was published by Edward Elgar Ltd in September 2007. He was awarded the CBE in 1997 for services to economic debate.
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